The following is a 5 message exchange between 4 users
@DiplomatCod7mos7MO
Increasingly come round to the take that Democrats have been doing very well with 65+ voters in the last several years and that's why they're doing so well in special elections.
@SeafowlLily7mos7MO
Seems like this shift was mainly a post-dobbs thing? Dem performances in special elections were ranged from mediocre to downright awful post-2020 up until Dobbs, after which they started blowing the doors off the GOP
@DiplomatCod7mos7MO
Yeah but we also have Dems doing quite well in e.g. old areas of New Jersey in NJ-GOV 2021. I'd say Dem strength with old people helped mitigate some of the more catastrophic losses in 2021 and then when the Dobbs effect hit that added up to some big special election wins
@SeafowlLily7mos7MO
Also might partially explain why dems had a catastrophic performance in VA/NJ in November 2021 while they held water in the special elections (OH-11/15) that were held concurrently
@PoliticalSyrup7mos7MO
In general — on young voters shifting right and old voters shifting left — I’m hearing a lot of “what” but not a lot of “why.”
Genuinely curious for people’s theories, because if it ends up holding true next November it’s a *huge* shift in the way we think about modern politics.
