U.S. Intelligence Says Netanyahu Will Lose Next Election

A new U.S. global intelligence assessment says that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on office “may be in jeopardy” and suggests Israel will fail to achieve its aim in the Gaza war of completely eliminating Hamas.

Public opinion has turned sharply against him, and large-scale protests calling for his ouster have occurred in Israel. Netanyahu’s rule depends on avoiding snap elections and keeping his narrow parliamentary majority intact. He has vowed to stay on until he has led Israel to “total victory” over Hamas. Netanyahu’s hope, analysts say, is a visible victory, such as killing the group’s top leaders in Gaza, that could help his popularity bounce back.

He is also under pressure from within Israel’s three-member war cabinet, which includes his two major rivals, Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity Party, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

If elections were held now, polls say Gantz would easily defeat Netanyahu’s Likud. Gantz hasn’t ruled out working with the Palestinian Authority after the Gaza war and working toward a Palestinian state. Netanyahu is at odds on the issues with the White House, which favors a Palestinian Authority role in postwar Gaza and renewed diplomatic discussion on an independent Palestinian state.

Israel “remains focused on destroying Hamas, which its population broadly supports,” it states. “Moreover, Israel probably will face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come, and the military will struggle to neutralize Hamas’s underground infrastructure, which allows insurgents to hide, regain strength, and surprise Israeli forces.”