There seems to be no evidence for it in specials election results, voter registration data or really any major election or the Trump era. His 2020 improvement was typical for incumbents such as Clinton, W, Obama did with specific demographic groups related to the benefits of incumbency
Actually, I've seen this (double digit black support for Trump) in two polls I've done. So I wouldn't be so quick as to play "shoot the messenger" just because this data point doesn't look good.
Bottom line:let the data (plural) do the talking, & not instantly shoot down bad
@Gr4ssrootStanGreen2wks2W
But what if the problem is the data, or how we collect it? We have seen this head fake before, with Biden running specifically. Could it be that when the NYT needs 500,000 calls to find that Philly is 55/35 and Trump up in Clark County, that the data may the problem?
4 years ago, I never saw Trump with double digit support in any poll I ever did. Could the data be a problem ? Certainly. And in such a case, other pollS (capitalized "S" deliberate :)) would contradict such an anomaly, if such were the case.
@Gr4ssrootStanGreen2wks2W
No poll exists in a vaccum specially this far out. Biden took the first lead in the Decision Desk avg since October yesterday. Tied in the economist; up .1 in RacetoWH, he’s only down currently in 538 solely due to their adjustment. Trump isn’t winning Clark or getting 35% in Philly when he’s losing nationally
